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Fiscal-monetary
Policy Mix And Output Response In Nigeria (1960-2012)
INTRODUCTION
The use of
economic policy as tool for economic stabilization by governments of different
economies of the world cannot be overemphasized. Some of these policy measures
may have economic-wide effect (e.g. the budget and inflation) while others may
have specific effects such as the consumption tax on consumer good (Killick,
1981 and Black, Calitz, Steenekamp, Ajam, 2000). Policymakers around the world
employ various policies, singly or mix, to stabilize the boom-bust cyclical
swings of economic activities. In macroeconomic management, the two most
commonly employed policies are the fiscal and monetary policies.
The Monetary
policy, managed by the Central Bank, is conducted through changes in the money
supply and interest rate. While the Fiscal policy, which is managed by the
government of that economy, is conducted through changes in government spending
and taxes (Liborio, 2011; Hussain, Wijeweera and Hoang, 2012). Despite the fact
that monetary and fiscal policies are implemented by two different bodies,
these policies are far from independent. In fact, a change in one may influence
the effectiveness of the other and thereby the overall impacts of any policy
change. Since 1980s, there has been a general consensus among economists in
favour of monetary policy as a more effective stabilization tool relative to
fiscal policy (Mishkin, 2004; Mankiw, 2005; and Bullard, 2012), however, the
recent global financial crisis of 2007 has renewed much interest on fiscal
stimulus.
In recent
times, policy makers are prompted to employ unconventional actions to stabilize
the national economy. Precisely, while monetary policymakers turn to
quantitative easing (the purchase of financial assets so as to lower long-term
interest rates, thereby increasing the money supply), fiscal policymakers
increase government spending and reduce taxes so as to boost employment and
output (Liborio, 2011). The global economic meltdown, which persisted until
2009, had significant adverse effects on the real economic activities of many
developing countries. For instance the Nigerian real GDP growth rate decline
from 7.6 per cent in 2006 to 6.0 per cent at the onset of the crises in 2008.
The effect of the global crisis was pervasive and its adverse effect remained
noticeable in the areas of agriculture, industry and the wholesale sub-sectors
in Nigeria (CBN, 2009). Similar trends were also observed in other countries of
the world. To ensure that their economies are insulated or protected from the
possible negative effects of such snowballing, many countries especially
developing countries had resulted to the use of domestic macroeconomic policy
to re-engineer their economy and provide some policy palliative that can assist
in stabilizing their economies.
Nigeria in
particular had, in response to the global economic crisis, introduced both
monetary and fiscal stimuli as proactive measures to prevent the economy from
nose-diving into further economic depression. The policy measures adopted by
government were mainly on three broad fronts namely: monetary policy, fiscal
policy and trade policy. In Nigeria, fiscal and monetary policies (especially
the tools of government expenditure, money supply and monetary policy rate
(MPR)) have been extensively used by the government and other policy makers to
stimulate output.. In order to appreciate the policy-source of these variations
in output performance over the years, it is necessary to take a retrospective
look at the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria.
TABLE OF
CONTENTS
Title Page
Certification
Dedication
Acknowledgements
Table of
Contents
Abstract
CHAPTER ONE:
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background to the Study
1.2 Fiscal and Monetary Policy Management in
Nigeria: a Retrospection
1.3
Statement of the Problem
1.4
Objective of the Study
1.5 Research
Hypotheses
1.6
Significance of the Study
1.7
Scope/Delimitation of the Study
1.8
Organization of the Study
CHAPTER TWO:
LITERATURE REVIEW AND CONCEPTUAL ISSUES
2.1 Conceptual
Issues
2.2
Theoretical Review of Literature
2.2.1 The
Keynesian’s View
2.2.2 The
Monetarists’ View
2.2.3
Mundel-Fleming’s Model
2.3 Monetary
Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria
2.4 Economic
Effect of Fiscal Policy
CHAPTER
THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Model
Specification
3.1.1
Theoretical Framework
3.1.2 The
Model
3.2 Data
Measurement and Analysis
3.2.1 Fiscal
Policy Variable
3.2.2
Monetary Policy Variable
3.2.3
External Variable
3.2.4 Output
Variable
3.3 Method
of Data Analysis
3.3.1 Unit
root test
3.3.2
Co-integration Test
3.3.3 Error
Correction Models (ECM)
CHAPTER
FOUR: PRESENTATION AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS
4.1
Introduction
4.2 Time
Series Properties of Data
4.2.2 Co-integration test
4.3
Empirical Discussion of Findings
4.4 Test of
Hypotheses
CHAPTER
FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary
5.2
Conclusion
5.3
Recommendations
REFERENCES
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